White Paper of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine: Russia is the main source of threats

America trying to ‘rule the world’, says Russian spy chief – BBC News

White Paper of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine: Russia is the main source of threats

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has created a powerful military grouping in Crimea

KIEV – In the coming years, Russia will remain the main source of threats to the security of Ukraine and around it. This is stated in the 70-page information bulletin “White Book” on the website of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

“At the strategic level, the goals of the Russian Federation in relation to Ukraine will remain unchanged and envisage keeping it in the orbit of Russian influence and preventing the European and Euro-Atlantic movement. This constant remains even despite the general international background unfavorable for Russia and the emergence of a number of new factors. We are talking about the victory of J. Biden in the presidential elections in the United States, turbulence in the hydrocarbon markets, destructive phenomena in the country’s economy, as well as a possible change of power in Russia, ”says the White Paper section“ Threats from Russia ”.

Ukrainian intelligence officers note that “against the background of more and more obvious health problems of V. Putin, noticeable difficulty for him to physically perform public functions of the head of state in Russia, a de facto period of transfer of power has begun.”.

“Regardless of the specific option (“ Putin is president for life, ”“ Putin is the leader of the nation, ”“ Putin is a tandem, ”“ Putin’s heir “), the baseline scenario for the medium term envisages the preservation of the state model of“ Putinism ”in Russia with or without Putin him “, – emphasized in the bulletin.

In the section devoted to the assessment of threats in the field of cybersecurity, it is noted that “Russia seeks to dominate the Ukrainian information space. This is one of the conditions for preparing for aggression against Ukraine “.

“The destructive informational influences on the part of Russia paradoxically combine, on the one hand, high technologies, and on the other, archaic ideological approaches built on the proven experience of“ active measures ”of the“ A ”service of the PSU KGB of the USSR,” the text emphasizes.

Ideological content, propaganda, according to the authors of the material, varies depending on the audience and countries of use: for the republics of the post-Soviet camp, the ideas of the “Russian world” are used, the ideas of Pan-Slavism and Orthodox messianism for the Balkans, anti-Americanism – in developing countries.

In Crimea, according to the authors of the bulletin, Russia has created a powerful inter-service grouping of troops, which covers land, air and naval components and numbers about 32.5 thousand people..

“The Russian side creates conditions for the deployment of nuclear weapons, their individual components and carriers in the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, carries out work to restore nuclear infrastructure, which poses a threat to the national security of Ukraine,” the White Book says..

The authors point out that there is a blockage of Ukrainian ports in the Sea of ​​Azov and a readiness to transfer this practice to the Black Sea ports, undermining the economic potential of the country..

The foreword emphasizes that the White Book newsletter is the first such project in the history of Ukrainian foreign intelligence. Its uniqueness lies in the fact that the publication “maximally, as far as the current legislation allows, lifts the curtain from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine and allows you to look behind the scenes of this special and mysterious sphere of activity.”.

Categories of influence for the Kremlin

According to the Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Study of Extremism Bogdana Petrenko, the Kremlin’s task in the information confrontation is to influence various categories of the population with the long-term goal of the political occupation of Ukraine.

“Russia does not need any strong power in Ukraine, even a pro-Russian one,” says Bogdan Petrenko to the correspondent of the Russian service of the Voice of America..

He believes that Russian propaganda uses several information archetypes to influence Ukrainians..

“For the first category of the Ukrainian population, Russian information archetypes are used:“ Putin ”,“ Great Patriotic War ”,“ Russia did not attack anyone ”. For the second – to those who “do not care”, messages about the inability of the Ukrainian government, unresolved internal problems, the formation of mistrust in all government bodies, including the security forces, ”says Bogdan Petrenko.

For both categories, he said, “nostalgic messages about life in the USSR” are also used, and Russian entertainment channels impose Kremlin narratives.

“Despite the blocking of Russian media resources in Ukraine – TV channels, websites and social networks, they still have a wide field for influence. Firstly, these are satellite channels. After the “reform” of satellite broadcasting, many TV channels that shaped Ukrainian public opinion disappeared from the available Ukrainian network. And some of the citizens switched to Russian ones, ”emphasizes Bogdan Petrenko.

Another category for influence from the Kremlin, he notes, is the patriotic electorate, which they are trying to “split and grind”.

“For this category, already existing narratives about incapacity are often strengthened, but not the state, but the current political elite. There is also a group of “useful idiots” – these are the so-called experts who unconsciously spread the messages of Russian propaganda “, – emphasizes Bogdan Petrenko.

Russia’s goals in Ukraine

Deputy Director of Situations Modeling Alexey Golobutsky believes that Russia’s plans to destabilize the situation in order to get a maximum of engaged politicians in the Verkhovna Rada.

“It is clear that Russia does not need Donbass, it needs all of Ukraine, and for this it is necessary to form a loyal government, a corrupt elite. To have some kind of “operetta new course”, steps, as it was in the fall of 2013 – a neutral pro-Russian policy, no European Union, no NATO “, – says Alexei Golobutsky to the correspondent of the Russian service” Voice of America “.

He notes that US sanctions against some Ukrainian officials showed the existence of Russian agents of influence in national politics..

“I think that we are losing in the information struggle with Russia, the political influence of the Kremlin, as it used to be, and now is, the United States by its sanctions shows that we have Russian agents even in parliament. I think there are 50-60 of them there, ”notes Alexey Golobutsky.

He calls the Russian vaccine against coronavirus a tool of the Kremlin’s geopolitics.

“Due to the incompetence of our government, we are in the last place in the queue for the vaccine, this moment is also used by Russia in its propaganda, despite the fact that they have a low percentage of vaccination of the population, and the vaccine is distributed abroad,” notes Alexey Golobutsky.

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