Experts on whether the president of Belarus has room for maneuver
Demands to impose sanctions against President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and his entourage, responsible for the falsification of the presidential election and the rampant violence in the country, are heard from different sides.
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EU foreign ministers speak out for imposing sanctions against the Belarusian authorities
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In the context of what is happening, the question is hanging in the air: will Alexander Lukashenko’s tough position of the consolidated West push towards closer cooperation with Moscow within the framework of the Union State, in particular, to the creation of Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus, which the Kremlin has long dreamed of??
“The conflict between society and the” Belarusian leviathan “has gone too far”
Head of the Mises Research Center Yaroslav Romanchuk does not think that Belarusians are “ready to throw themselves into the arms of Russia”, no matter what happens there. In his opinion, the conflict between society and the “Belarusian leviathan” has gone too far.
“People are not taking to the streets for five days in a row, protesting to watch the country lose its sovereignty,” he says in an interview with the Russian service of the Voice of America. – Moreover, dozens of state-owned enterprises, which receive government support, also protested against the fascist violence against fellow citizens. Therefore, here the world community must first of all declare its clear moral position, and then different political considerations must be taken into account. “.
We are witnessing the creation of a Belarusian civil society and the strengthening of its unity, noted Yaroslav Romanchuk. According to him, until recently, no one could have imagined that large state-owned enterprises would so massively begin to join political demands, including a recount of votes following the results of the presidential elections and an end to violence..
“It also corresponds to the civic position of IT, people of culture, including artists from guest theaters, doctors and other segments of the population,” he added. – Even the deputy of the House of Representatives, Marina Vasilevich, Lukashenka’s favorite, and she spoke in favor of ending the violence. Quite servile people, softly embedded in the vertical of power, from the Belarusian television, also expressed their protest ”.
The country is already on the verge beyond which real fascism begins, summed up the head of the Mises Research Center..
“Lukashenka is bankrupt in five minutes”
Belarusian opposition politician, director of the Center for European Affairs Anatoly Lebedko believes that targeted economic sanctions against those who distorted the will of voters, or gave orders for mass torture against thousands of detained people, are now more than appropriate. It seems to him that very few people are interested in Lukashenka’s opinion on this matter..
“Besides, what should he look for in Moscow? – he asks a question during the commentary to the Voice of America. – Due to a number of circumstances, Moscow poses the greatest threat and risk to Lukashenka. The West is not going to annex the country. But Putin has such plans, he has the ambitions of a collector of foreign lands “.
The current situation requires tools in relation to Lukashenka, allowing to stop violence in the country and torture of people, as well as forcing the authorities to at least negotiate, the result of which should be the holding of fair and free elections in Belarus, Anatoly Lebedko stated..
At the same time, he admits that without a financial injection from outside, Lukashenka would be “bankrupt in five minutes”: “Already today, the total external debt of the republic is about $ 40 billion. This is a huge amount for the country. Therefore, external injections are needed, and Lukashenka understands that one of the consequences of Western sanctions may be the cessation of the current trickles of financial support. This is a serious argument. “.
Lukashenka stopped the repressions and sent the OMON back to the barracks, first of all, because large large enterprises intervened in the matter, the politician believes. According to him, they are either in a pre-strike state, or in a strike..
“And this influenced the position of Lukashenka, who understands only the language of force,” he stressed. “And the instrument of sanctions is another opportunity to force him to change his approach to solving problems, stop repression and sit down at the negotiating table.”.
Now Lukashenka’s room for maneuvers has narrowed to the limit, the director of the Center for European Affairs is convinced. From his point of view, it is no coincidence that yesterday the authorities stopped the flywheel of repression, today they began to release people from prisons on a large scale: “In fact, this testifies to Lukashenka’s weakness. He is not even sure of his main stronghold – the security forces. Perhaps, representatives of European organizations, in particular, the European Parliament, will arrive in Belarus in the coming days. Let’s see how they will be met here (by the authorities), what will be the reflections and proposals “.
The people are very determined, concluded Anatoly Lebedko.
I will follow