Russians Address Economic Woes: ‘Gaidar’ forum opens in Russian capital
Professor Jack Goldstone – on global trends, politics and economics
Jack Andrew Goldstone came to Moscow to participate in the Gaidar Forum. Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University in the United States, he is also a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, one of the most respected American think tanks. His blog on global trends in politics and economics is very popular not only among specialists.
The Voice of America Russian Service correspondent managed to talk to the professor on the first day of the forum, while Goldstone was only a spectator. The professor briefly described the main points that will play a role in relations between Russia and the United States..
Anastasia Laukkanen: In your opinion, are new risks, such as the recent “financial ruin” possible, in the United States in the coming years? The economic crisis in the United States will inadvertently affect all countries in the world, including Russia …
Jack E. Goldstone: I think we will experience recurring risks in fiscal policy until the GOP and Democratic parties learn to work together. The situation in which we have found ourselves for the past five years has been one confrontation after another. Each time we hope that the next elections will somehow change the balance of power, but this is not happening. Therefore, it seems to me, it will be necessary for the leaders of the parties to take on new obligations and change their approaches..
A.L .:How do you see the development of relations between the United States and Russia? Many fear that in the coming years they could get worse on many issues..
“Relations between Russia and the United States will remain difficult. This is a subtle point. The situation with the leadership in Russia now is such that this leadership is seeking to consolidate its legitimacy, but in America there are doubts about this, as well as about stability in the country. “
Jack E. Goldstone
D.E.G .: Relations between Russia and the United States will remain difficult. This is a subtle point. The situation with the leadership in Russia now is such that this leadership is seeking to consolidate its legitimacy, but in America there are doubts about this, as well as about stability in the country. Therefore, problems and concerns will constantly arise: what will be the attitude in Russia to the problem in Syria, to the situation in China, to the European Union. Moreover, Russian policy on these issues is changing over time. Therefore, the United States and Russia must learn to communicate effectively with each other in order to avoid possible misunderstandings. But I see that in the future this relationship continues to be very risky..
A.L .: Do you think that political differences can somehow block economic relations between countries??
D.E.G .: I think that economic relations between countries will go much easier than political relations. In part, because from an economic point of view, both North America and Russia will begin to take advantage of Europe’s recovery from the economic crisis, as well as from stable regulation and adjustment in China. Therefore, in the economic interests of the United States and Russia, in principle, they look in the same direction and agree with each other. But many political issues, such as Iran, the growth of Russia’s military presence in certain regions, or Russia’s relations with the countries of the Middle East – that will be really difficult to regulate politically..
A.L .: They say that in the near future, the growth of natural gas production in the United States will significantly change not only relations between Russia and the United States, but in general the balance of power in the world. It really is?
D.E.G .: Gas in Russia is one of the areas where the US economy can really have a negative impact on Russia. Because natural gas is getting cheaper and cheaper in America. And this could dramatically change the global gas market. At the moment, the US does not have the ability to export gas, therefore, at least for now, price changes here are not felt in other regions of the world. But ten years later, the fact that another producer of inexpensive natural gas, besides Russia, has appeared in the world cannot but affect Moscow’s ability to make money from gas exports. And I do believe that in ten, or, say, fifteen years, Russia’s ability to generate large government revenue through gas exports will greatly diminish..